South King County Quarterly Market Trends – Q4 2019

In the fourth quarter of 2019, there were 9% fewer new listings that came to the market compared to the fourth quarter of 2018, but pending sales outpaced inventory levels with a 7% increase in sales activity. The trend of pending sales outpacing new listings rang true throughout all of 2019, which illustrates strong buyer demand. This demand is being fueled by the lowest interest rates we have seen since 2016, additional job creation in our area, and the convergence of baby boomers making big lifestyle moves and millennials making their first home purchases. Equity levels are very healthy for many homeowners due to the last 8 years of price growth, providing the opportunity to make that right-size, move-up, or move-out-of-the-area move. An important factor to note as we head into Q1 of 2020 is the tighter-than-normal inventory levels. This will bode well for sellers, as buyers are anxious to secure a purchase with these historically low interest rates. Low interest rates are a benefit for buyers to have lower debt service, but also affords home sellers a larger audience.

 

This is only a snapshot of the trends in south King County; please contact me if you or someone you know would like further explanation of how the latest trends relate to your housing goals.


Posted on January 28, 2020 at 9:28 pm
Tonya & Pat Tye | Posted in Quarterly Market Trends, South King County |

Eastside Quarterly Market Trends – Q4 2019

In the fourth quarter of 2019, there were 17% fewer new listings that came to the market compared to the fourth quarter of 2018, but pending sales outpaced inventory levels with a 17% increase in sales activity. The trend of pending sales outpacing new listings rang true throughout all of 2019, which illustrates strong buyer demand. This demand is being fueled by the lowest interest rates we have seen since 2016, additional job creation in our area, and the convergence of baby boomers making big lifestyle moves and millennials making their first home purchases. Equity levels are very healthy for many homeowners due to the last 8 years of price growth (despite the 2018-2019 correction), providing the opportunity to make that right-size, move-up, or move-out-of-the-area move. An important factor to note as we head into Q1 of 2020 is the tighter-than-normal inventory levels. This will bode well for sellers, as buyers are anxious to secure a purchase with these historically low interest rates. Low interest rates are a benefit for buyers to have lower debt service, but also affords home sellers a larger audience.

 

This is only a snapshot of the trends on the Eastside; please contact me if you or someone you know would like further explanation of how the latest trends relate to your housing goals.


Posted on January 28, 2020 at 9:27 pm
Tonya & Pat Tye | Posted in Eastside, Quarterly Market Trends |

Seattle Metro Quarterly Market Trends – Q4 2019

In the fourth quarter of 2019, there were 6% fewer new listings that came to the market compared to the fourth quarter of 2018, but pending sales outpaced inventory levels with a 26% increase in sales activity. The trend of pending sales outpacing new listings rang true throughout all of 2019, which illustrates strong buyer demand. This demand is being fueled by the lowest interest rates we have seen since 2016, additional job creation in our area, and the convergence of baby boomers making big lifestyle moves and millennials making their first home purchases. Equity levels are very healthy for many homeowners due to the last 8 years of price growth (despite the 2018-2019 correction), providing the opportunity to make that right-size, move-up, or move-out-of-the-area move. An important factor to note as we head into Q1 of 2020 is the tighter-than-normal inventory levels. This will bode well for sellers, as buyers are anxious to secure a purchase with these historically low interest rates. Low interest rates are a benefit for buyers to have lower debt service, but also affords home sellers a larger audience.

 

This is only a snapshot of the trends in the Seattle Metro area; please contact me if you or someone you know would like further explanation of how the latest trends relate to your housing goals.


Posted on January 28, 2020 at 9:27 pm
Tonya & Pat Tye | Posted in Quarterly Market Trends, Seattle Metro |

North King County Quarterly Market Trends – Q4 2019

In the fourth quarter of 2019, there were 8% fewer new listings that came to the market compared to the fourth quarter of 2018, but pending sales outpaced inventory levels with a 29% increase in sales activity. The trend of pending sales outpacing new listings rang true throughout all of 2019, which illustrates strong buyer demand. This demand is being fueled by the lowest interest rates we have seen since 2016, additional job creation in our area, and the convergence of baby boomers making big lifestyle moves and millennials making their first home purchases. Equity levels are very healthy for many homeowners due to the last 8 years of price growth (despite the 2018-2019 correction), providing the opportunity to make that right-size, move-up, or move-out-of-the-area move. An important factor to note as we head into Q1 of 2020 is the tighter-than-normal inventory levels. This will bode well for sellers, as buyers are anxious to secure a purchase with these historically low interest rates. Low interest rates are a benefit for buyers to have lower debt service, but also affords home sellers a larger audience.

 

This is only a snapshot of the trends in north King County; please contact me if you or someone you know would like further explanation of how the latest trends relate to your housing goals.


Posted on January 28, 2020 at 9:26 pm
Tonya & Pat Tye | Posted in North King County, Quarterly Market Trends |

South Snohomish County Quarterly Market Trends – Q4 2019

In the fourth quarter of 2019, there were 5% fewer new listings that came to the market compared to the fourth quarter of 2018, but pending sales outpaced inventory levels with a 5% increase in sales activity. The trend of pending sales outpacing new listings rang true throughout all of 2019, which illustrates strong buyer demand. This demand is being fueled by the lowest interest rates we have seen since 2016, additional job creation in our area, and the convergence of baby boomers making big lifestyle moves and millennials making their first home purchases. Equity levels are very healthy for many homeowners due to the last 8 years of price growth providing the opportunity to make that right-size, move-up, or move-out-of-the-area move. An important factor to note as we head into Q1 of 2020 is the tighter-than-normal inventory levels. This will bode well for sellers, as buyers are anxious to secure a purchase with these historically low interest rates. Low interest rates are a benefit for buyers to have lower debt service, but also affords home sellers a larger audience.

 

This is only a snapshot of the trends in south Snohomish County; please contact me if you or someone you know would like further explanation of how the latest trends relate to your housing goals.


Posted on January 28, 2020 at 9:25 pm
Tonya & Pat Tye | Posted in Quarterly Market Trends, South Snohomish County |

North Snohomish County Quarterly Market Trends – Q4 2019

In the fourth quarter of 2019, there were 9% more new listings that came to the market compared to the fourth quarter of 2018, but pending sales outpaced this jump in inventory with a 24% increase in sales activity. The trend of pending sales outpacing new listings rang true throughout all of 2019 which illustrates strong buyer demand. This demand is being fueled by the lowest interest rates we have seen since 2016, additional job creation in our area, and the convergence of baby boomers making big lifestyle moves and millennials making their first home purchases. Equity levels are very healthy for many homeowners due to the last 8 years of price growth, providing the opportunity to make that right-size, move-up, or move-out-of-the-area move. An important factor to note as we head into Q1 of 2020 is the tighter-than-normal inventory levels. This will bode well for sellers, as buyers are anxious to secure a purchase with these historically low interest rates. Low interest rates are a benefit for buyers to have lower debt service, but also affords home sellers a larger audience.

 

This is only a snapshot of the trends in north Snohomish County; please contact me if you or someone you know would like further explanation of how the latest trends relate to your housing goals.


Posted on January 28, 2020 at 9:24 pm
Tonya & Pat Tye | Posted in North Snohomish County, Quarterly Market Trends |

Monthly Newsletter – January 2020: Top 12 Takeaways from Matthew Gardner for 2020, A Macro-to-Micro Look at the Economy & Housing Market

Last week, I had the pleasure of attending our office’s 11th Annual Matthew Gardner Economic Forecast Event.  At this event, Matthew gives the crowd a review of the previous year and forecasts trends for the economy and housing market for the next year and beyond.  Below are my Top 12 Takeaways worth noting as you start to chart your economic goals for 2020 and beyond.

  1. He anticipates our next recession taking place in 2021, not 2020 as previously thought. The last 11 recessions averaged 58 months in between one recession to the next, and we are currently at 127 months since the last recession, so we are due. Worth noting is the next recession will not be based on housing like the previous recession. It is predicted to be a more normal adjustment that should also be short in length, unlike the Great Recession of 2008-2010.
  2. Recessions do not always cause home prices to drop. Of the last six recessions, home prices actually ended up higher than when the recession began with the exception of the Great Recession of 2008-2010, which was based on housing due to predatory lending.
  3. The U.S. Economy will add 1.8M new jobs, but national unemployment rates should rise to 4% from 3.5% by the end of 2020. However, wage growth should start to improve as that has been slow over the last decade. In the Greater Seattle area, unemployment hovered at 3% in Q3 of 2019.
  4. We are living in our homes longer. In 2019, the average home seller in the U.S had owned their home for an average of 8.2 years compared to the average home seller in 2000 at 4.2 years. This is reflective of homeowners choosing to build more equity over time before they cash-out and move on to the next home, as well as the increased amount of Baby Boomers coming to market with their long-time homes as they pivot towards retirement.
  5. We are not headed toward a housing bubble. When seasonally adjusted, home prices are still 5.8% below the prior peak. In addition, predatory lending practices were eliminated after the 2008 housing crash and the average down payment is much higher. Overall, home equity is high with the national average in Q3 2019 sitting at 26.7% and the average FICO score of a borrower in Q3 of 2019 was 755. This, along with foreclosure starts being low, indicates that we are not headed towards a housing bubble.
  6. Interest rates should remain under 4% in 2020These are historical lows, but reflective of the last decade. In 2010, rates were around 5% and were as low as 3.4% in 2012. In late 2018, rates almost crested 5% but careened down under 4% for most of the year. The 2000’s averaged 6.3%, the 1990’s 8.1%, the 1980’s 12.7%, and the 1970’s 8.9%. This should put today’s rates in perspective.
  7. Single-family new construction remains muted due to the expensive cost of land, labor, materials, and regulatory fees. This has made inventory levels tighter and the appreciation of existing homes stronger. The lack of overbuilding is also another contributing factor to no housing bubble.
  8. Millennials are a force in the real estate market! They are the largest generation at 79M, are the largest cohort in the U.S. workforce, and more than 1M Millennial women are becoming moms every year. This generation has grown up and is experiencing big life transitions that lead to home ownership decisions. Nationally, they accounted for 37.5% of home purchases in Q3 of 2019. In the Greater Seattle area in 2019, 46% of home purchases were done by Millennials with an average down payment of 17% and with a FICO score of 741.
  9. The Greater Seattle economy looks to outperform the U.S. economy due to continued corporate growth, specifically in information services, which will balance out any losses we may see due to the current setbacks in aerospace.
  10. In the Greater Seattle area, as we start 2020 inventory levels are tight due to a high level of absorption over the course of 2019 after a big inventory dump in mid-2018. Many investors offloaded properties in 2018 and it took time to absorb this inventory as it accompanied a time frame where interest rates were near 5%. The market softened at that time, but now we have returned to constricted inventory levels and lower interest rates. This will bode well for home sellers and provide buyers low debt service.
  11. The average sale price in King County in December of 2019 was $830,000 and King County saw a 3% increase in home prices in all of 2019 over all of 2018. It is predicted, due to low inventory, strong job growth. and low interest rates that year-over-year price appreciation in King County in 2020 will be around 6.6%. Affordability and consumer sentiment are the biggest challenges in King County, especially in-city Seattle and on the Eastside, which are closer to job centers.
  12. The average sale price in Snohomish County in December of 2019 was $552,000 and Snohomish County saw a 5% increase in home prices in 2019 over 2018. It is predicted, due to low inventory, strong job growth, and low interest rates that year-over-year price appreciation in Snohomish County in 2020 will be around 7.3%. Snohomish County has benefited from the high prices in King County, leading folks to purchase further out for affordability purposes.

If you would like more information or a copy of Matthew’s PowerPoint, please reach out. It is my goal to help keep my clients well-informed in order to empower strong decisions. 2020 looks to be another positive year in real estate! If you or anyone you know is considering either buying or selling, please use me as a resource. It is an honor to help people make such important investments and meaningful lifestyle choices.

 

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

 

I am pleased to present the fourth-quarter 2019 edition of the Gardner Report, which provides insights into select counties of the Western Washington housing market. This analysis is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. I hope that this information will assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

Read the full report here.

 

 

 

In 2019 Windermere agents, offices, and staff raised nearly $3 million for the Windermere Foundation, surpassing $40 million total raised since 1989. These dollars stay local, supporting low-income and homeless families in the communities where we do business. We’re proud of the work we’ve done so far, but there’s so much left to do. As we begin 2020, we look forward to seeing how we can further impact each community we serve.


Posted on January 27, 2020 at 4:44 am
Tonya & Pat Tye | Posted in Monthly Newsletter, Newsletter |

Monthly Newsletter – December 2019: Year In Review

2019 was a return to normalcy in the real estate market. After a volatile 2018 which encountered a sharp mid-year shift from an extreme seller’s market, 2019 had a more normal pace of seasonality and selection. After four to five years of multiple offers, week-long market times, waived inspections, and huge price escalations, we’ve now experienced a balancing out in price appreciation and in some areas, a correction.

Affordability and inventory have driven demand. A healthy increase in homes coming to market compared to two years ago has provided more selection and afforded buyers time to decern their choices. In-city prices found an affordability cap as buyers were forced to move north or south to find the payment they could afford. Close-in, in-city neighborhoods saw a bit of a price correction due to demand slipping for this reason. Overall, it’s been a welcome change to help buyers and sellers operate in a more balanced environment.

 

It’s important to understand that each market area has its own unique circumstances. Above and throughout this review, I divided the Greater Seattle area into 6 different market areas in order to illustrate this.

This chart is a study of the comparison of new listings to sold listings, which indicates demand. Over the last 12 months in each market area, sold listings have outpaced new listings. While some areas experienced more new listings from the same 12 months the year prior and some less, in each area the sold listings moved at a higher level than the previous 12 months. This is encouraging, as it shows that demand for our area is still very high.

This is driven by having one of the leading national job markets and continued low interest rates. One of the factors that affected the 2018 market shift was higher interest rates. The majority of 2018 rates were in the 4’s and almost reached 5% in late fall. In 2019, we started at 4.5%, and currently sit around 3.7% according to Y charts. In fact, since June we have remained under 4%. This has helped curbed affordability issues, brought first-time buyers out in force, and helped buyers that are also sellers move equity with low debt service. Believe it or not, experts are predicting rates will remain low throughout 2020. This is a key factor for consumers to pay attention to if they plan to jump into the market.

 

Above is a look at the new normal for market times and list-to-sale-price ratios. On average, it simply takes longer to sell your house now compared to the constricted, extreme seller’s markets of 2016-2018. The expectation of your home selling in the first weekend needs to be tempered, as the playing field of inventory has equaled due to more new listings coming to the market.

There is a phenomenon of Baby Boomers cashing out their equity and downsizing or moving out of the area. This is providing great move-up inventory for Gen X and Millennials to absorb. That absorption is then providing a nice selection of first-time-homebuyer houses. Bear in mind however, that the lower price points are where we are seeing the strongest demand, shortest market times, and stronger price appreciation. It’s a pretty awesome cycle to witness!

Sellers have had to negotiate a bit more, whether on the initial offering or during the inspection period. List-to-sale price ratios indicate that buyers and sellers are engaging in the dance of negotiations as prices return to a more normal level of price appreciation. Sellers on average are still getting very close to their list price. Since these are the averages, you must realize that there are still sellers that are escalating.

Homes that come to market with a well-thought-out pricing strategy, in great condition, and expertly merchandised are the ones we see breaking the average. Also, the influx of first-timers has helped drive demand in the lower price points, curtailing days on market and tighter list-to-sale price ratios in that section of the market.

 

When analyzing price appreciation, it is important to use a large data pull. For example, the chart above takes the last 12 months of prices and compares them to the previous 12 months. This provides a much more holistic observation of price growth versus a smaller data pull, such as month over month. Take note that the media often uses month-over-month data to paint a more dramatic story.

As mentioned above, the close-in, in-city markets have experienced a correction. It is clearly more expensive to live where you have a shorter commute to major job centers. Also, on the Eastside where the prices are the highest, they enjoy close proximity to some of the area’s biggest employers and arguably some of the best school districts in the area. The more out-lying communities found in south King and all of Snohomish County continue to see steady appreciation due to still-manageable commute times and affordability. The north Snohomish County market has been a hotbed for first-timers and Baby Boomers moving out of the area due to retirement and commutes not being a factor.

Note that this data pull is a complete year-over-year look at December 2018 to November 2019 compared to December 2017 to November 2018. Bear in mind that the first half of 2018 was an extreme seller’s market with sparse inventory and crazy escalations. This is where prices found their peak, and as we move away from those unique months and head into 2020, I believe that we will see the decrease in appreciation equal out and possibly have some subtle growth.

 

The chart above is a study of the months of inventory. This illustrates how quickly we would sell out of homes based on demand if nothing new came to market. We are calling the 2019 market a more normal market, but in reality, it was still measured as a seller’s market (0-3 months of inventory). It just hasn’t been so extreme, which has created a mentality that needs to be adjusted.

Just like the pricing study above, the data from the first half of 2018 included some markets that had only weeks of inventory versus months. That feels wildly different and takes some getting used to. Some may argue that the new normal of measuring a seller’s market is now 0-2 months, and that 2-4 months is a balanced market. Perspective is driving that viewpoint, as we have an entire portion of consumers that have known nothing besides historically low interest rates and low inventory levels. The vantage point of what is actually normal is finding its footing.

Right now, all six markets sit at a lower inventory level than the average of the year. This is due to seasonality. Many sellers prefer to come to market when the days are longer and we are outside of the holidays. I predict that the low interest rates and the turn of the new year will encourage strong buyer demand. New Year’s resolution goal setting always brings demand. With that said, the sellers that come to market earlier in the year prior to the spring rush will enjoy a large audience hungry for inventory to gobble up.

Overall, 2019 has been a very positive year in real estate. The majority of the sales have been propped up on incredibly favorable equity positions on behalf of sellers and historically low interest rates for buyers. If a person has owned their home for 3 or more years and hasn’t cashed equity out, they are in a positive equity position. For those that have been in their homes for 10 or more years, they are knocking it out of the park!

Below you can watch a short video from Matthew Gardner, Windermere’s Chief Economist, and hear what he thinks we have in store for 2020 on the national level. As we head into the New Year, please reach out should you have a curiosity about how your local real estate market relates to your financial and lifestyle goals. It is always my goal to help keep my clients informed and empower strong decisions through thorough research and a high level of communication.

Here’s to a happy holiday season and a prosperous 2020!

 

It’s that time of year when Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner dusts off his crystal ball and peers into the future to give us his predictions for the 2020 economy and housing market.

 

 

Holiday Giving!

This Christmas, my office adopted 23 foster boys, ranging in age from 13-18 years old, and living in group homes managed by Pioneer Human Services. These group homes serve boys who are struggling with emotional, behavioral and/or psychiatric problems that prevent placement in a traditional foster care setting. We purchased gifts, using wish lists from the boys, to help provide a joyful Christmas morning for these teenage boys who might otherwise be overlooked.

The office also raised money for grocery gift cards for families in need (also referred by Pioneer Human Services). This year we distributed $3,538 in grocery gift cards to 12 local families.

We are also thrilled to report that we were able to deliver a full car load of warm winter donations to Mary’s Place from all of your generous donations during our Thanksgiving pie giveaway and Santa photo events.

Happy Holidays!


Posted on January 3, 2020 at 4:56 am
Tonya & Pat Tye | Posted in Monthly Newsletter |

Celebrating New Year’s Eve off the Beaten Path

Because big parties with crowds, expensive cocktails, and massive fireworks shows aren’t the only way to ring in the new year.

 

The holiday season is in full swing, and the year (and the decade!) is almost over. If a big party is not your scene, you’re not alone. Some of the most fun and meaningful moments in life are a little more intimate, and shared with people we love. Below, I’ve rounded up a few ideas for ringing in the new year that are a little off the beaten path.

 

Staying In

  • Dinner Party

Invite your favorite people to share a meal. Plan an elaborate menu, and go all-out fancy. It’s the end of a decade, after all. Not much of a cook? Plan a potluck instead. Challenge everyone to make something they wouldn’t normally cook. Or assign teams and host a cook-off competition. There are lots of possibilities, but the end result of spending the evening with those you love, reflecting on the past and planning for the future is always a win.

 

  • Game Night

Gather the gang for drinks, snacks, and some good-natured smack talk. Game nights provide an easy way to laugh, play, and get out of your comfort zone, together. To avoid a game night fail, make sure you think about these three questions: 1) How many people can comfortably fit in your space 2) How many people can play the games you want to play 3) What kind of group do you want to have?

There are tons of great games you can play together, but here are some ideas, broken down by category. May the best player win!

 

  • Wine Tasting

Invite a local wine expert and a few friends to a special NYE tasting. Or, choose a type of wine and a price-point, and have everyone bring a bottle. Whether you are supplying the wine, or leaving it up to your guests, you’ll need to make sure you have enough wine glasses and a couple of good corkscrews, as well as plenty of food to soak it all up. Here are some great tips and ideas for hosting a great tasting.

If wine isn’t your thing, you could host a tasting event with beer, chocolate, or a different food item you love!

 

  • Pajama Party

If you’d rather have a low-key, casual evening at home, throw a pajama party! Cocktails, appetizers, and jammies were definitely meant to be together! You could make it a girls night in, a sleepover, a movie marathon, a family affair… so many possibilities! To make the evening feel extra special, have a signature cocktail for the evening. Perhaps something with champagne? Plan lots of snacks, gather all the throw blankets and pillows you can find, and get cozy.

 

Out & About

  • Overnight Hotel Stay

Take a mini vacay! It could be a fun getaway for the family, a renewing solo adventure, or the ultimate date night. During the day you can do some shopping, go see a movie, take advantage of the hotel pool, or relax in the spa. Ring in the new year with a meal in the hotel restaurant, or order room service for a special treat.

 

  • Attend a Religious service

Also called a Watchnight Service or Mass, the late-night New Year’s Eve religious service is a wonderful opportunity for self-reflection, renewal and preparing for the year ahead.

 

  • Volunteer

Spend the day volunteering your time for a worthwhile cause that is important to you. Perhaps there is a homeless shelter in your city who is looking for help serving dinner. Or a nursing home nearby, full of people who could use a friendly visitor. Make it a family day, or ask a few friends to join you. Spending time serving others can be one of the most rewarding ways to close out the year.

 

  • Karaoke!

For a casual, fun-filled evening with friends, ring in the new year with singing, drinks, laughter, and fun. If you like the idea of karaoke, but you’re too shy to sing in front of strangers, rent a private karaoke room so only you and your closest friends can laugh at each other.

 

No matter how you decide to close out the year, choosing to spend your time with people you love will ensure that you have a holiday worth remembering.

 

Cheers!


Posted on November 28, 2019 at 4:53 am
Tonya & Pat Tye | Posted in Community Events |

Monthly Newsletter: November 2019 – Quarterly Economic Update

I am pleased to present the third-quarter 2019 edition of the Gardner Report, which provides insights into select counties of the Western Washington housing market. This analysis is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. I hope that this information will assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

Read the full report here.

 

 

 As winter approaches, it’s time to make sure your home is ready for the harsh weather ahead. To avoid costly repairs later, take some time now preparing your home to withstand another cold season. Here are 30 important tasks to protect and prepare your investment. View the full list here.

 

 

 

Have you been keeping track of the Seahawks home game defensive tackles? We have. Every one means another $100 donated to Mary’s Place. After the last home game win against Tampa Bay, our total raised to date is $118,100. Every play matters in the fight against homelessness! Follow along on social media with #tacklehomelessness.  Go Hawks!

 

 

 


Posted on November 28, 2019 at 4:52 am
Tonya & Pat Tye | Posted in Monthly Newsletter |